North Korea, Iran and the lessons we must learn

Last week was busy week on the Korean Peninsula, not to mention the corridors of power in Washington and at the UN. Following North Korea's nuclear test and subsequent missile test launches, people are angry....no let me correct my self, they are very angry, even very, very angry.

Condemnation has flowed thick and fast from a wide number of interested, ney concerned parties. The UN security council is considering its options. President Obama has signalled that such behaviour will not be tolerated. South Korea has retaliated by joining the Proliferation Security Initiative, whereby it will (at least in theory) stop and search North Korean ships it thinks might be transporting Nuclear technology. US Secretary of Defense Gates stated that the US "will not accept North Korea as a nuclear state". In regard to the transfer of nuclear know how he had this to say..."the transfer of nuclear weapons or material by North Korea to states or non-state entities would be considered a grave threat to the United States and our allies. And we would hold North Korea fully accountable for the consequences of such action.".

One should point out that North Korean scientists were present when Israel bombed a Syrian nuclear facility in 2007. They also work cloely with the iranians on their nuclear programme. Korea's past and current client list for nuclear and missile technology includes Pakistan, Egypt, Syria and Iran

So with all this anger, world condemnation, tough statements and threats of further sanctions, surely the Democratic People's Republic of Korea must be quaking in its boots, desperately seeking to make amends and change its ways...right?

Well not exactly. In response to the responses North Korea as done the following. It has nullified the cease fire agreement of 1953, which ended the Korean war. It has stated that any attempt to stop and search its ships will be seen as an act of war which would result in harsh retaliation, as would any punitive actions by the UN. Regardless of its missile and nuclear capabilities, North Korea has the capacity to wreak havoc on its neighbour and adversary South Korea. It has somewhere around ten thousand artillery posts dug in along the 38th Parallel. Its missiles can also comfortably hit Japan. It has been reported that North Korea is now planning the test launch of an inter continental ballistic missile. I wonder what kind of harsh response that will evoke. Rumour has it that North Korea may be threatened with a stiff reproach from China. I am sure that'll do the trick.

So what can we learn from this debacle. Well apparently very little if the actions of the US and its western allies is anything to go by. The one country however which seems to be taking note and learning lessons is Iran. The only country to come out in support of North Korea's recent actions, Iran sees that there is every incentive in the world to go after nuclear capability. Lets think for a moment. Iran looks at its neighbours' situation. Afghanistan has no nuclear capability and was invaded in 2001. Iraq, again no nukes, invaded in 2003. For a country looking to develop influence and a power base across the Middle East and further afield, this does not look good. However when it looks at its ally and research partner North Korea, it is a different story altogether. North Korea does have a nuclear capability (perhaps only rudimentary), it flouts agreements and UN resolutions whenever it feels it expedient and continues development of its nuclear weapons programme. Well, as we all know, North Korea has not and will not be invaded.

Far from being angry, the world at large is to damn scared to really call North Korea on its actions. Fear of a conflict along the 38th Parallel has so grabbed the US, and its regional allies that it will do just about anything to avoid such a scenario. It is right to do so, however the manner in which the world is going about it is seriously flawed. The more they show fear the more North Korea feels it can push. If history teaches us anything it is that dictators and tyrants only respect strength and not fear. The world needed to stand up to North Korea before it had nuclear arms. Today in truth it may be too late to truly deal with the regime in Pyongyang and an uncomfortable compromise may have to be negotiated. if such a thing is possible.

So if you were Iran, what conclusion would you come to from the North Korean example? It is good to have nukes!!! If you have nukes, the world will not f**k with you. If you have nukes and a somewhat questionable agenda (in the eyes of the world), you can pretty much do as you please. So why not pursue them. It makes sense. IN fact it makes no sense not to.

For Iran it definitely makes sense to have them........... although ironically, there could be a scenario where it may not make sense to pursue them. The world has a window of opportunity to stop Iran's bid to attain nuclear status. Iran has to know that the price of pursuing nuclear capability is too great and as such it is not in its interests to continue with its programme.

The US, the UN and the world at large much make it crystal clear to Iran that their nuclear programme is not to be tolerated and that it must cease, that the consequences of continuing will be harsh indeed, not just in words and resolutions, but also in sanctions and if necessary action. The risk and potential cost of such a strategy is great, however the eventual cost of a nuclear Iran will be far far greater, both in terms of regional and world stability and ultimately in human life

One can only hope that the current crisis in Korea enables the world to understand that it cannot afford to allow a similar scenario to develop in the Middle East.

Edinburgh...Just say no to Loach!

Ken Loach is an intelligent film maker, an idealist and left wing activist? Well maybe? In regard to his films, it is a matter of taste. In regard to his intelligence and activism, well maybe one has to wonder about Ken Loach's motives.

Loach's move to boycott an Israeli grant to the Edinburgh film festival, the purpose of which was to enable Israeli director Tali Shalom Ezer to attend the screening of her film Surrogate, which I gather is a film about love and sex with no mention of the conflict. This fact notwithstanding, Loach sees the acceptance of this grant as an affront to the Palestinian nation. Loach is entitled to his opinion (if but totally misguided). His use of influence with the Edinburgh festival is a gross abuse of his position as well as a flagrant act of censorship. I wonder why as a supporter of Chechen independence he does not advocate the boycott of Russian films. What would have happened if certain people had objected to his interpretation of the Irish revolution in "The Wind That Shakes the Barley"?

Loach is just one more example of a so called left wing artist abusing his position in the pursuit of a political aim. His support for the Palestinian cause may be honourable, however his refusal to acknowledge that there are two sides to this particular conflict is laughable for a man of such supposed intelligence. While he supports Hamas and Hezbollah, two organisations which actively work to undermine just about all the values and freedoms Loach apparently believes in so passionately, he wantonly ignores their treatment of their own people. The murder, kidnap and religious oppression of Palestinians and Lebanese by these organisations is an acceptable price for Loach and his comrades. In truth it is Loaches patronising neo colonialist attitude to the Palestinians and the greater Arab world which is shameful. Loaches hatred of Israel borders on anti semitism. His desire to censor the Edinburgh film festival is shameful. The festivals capitulation to this bigotry is even more so. Loach does not speak for the film industry as a whole. he speaks for himself and a bunch of left wing misfits whose rabid hatred of Israel undermines just about everything they claim to stand for and most of all the legitimate rights of Palestinians and Israelis to live in peace and dignity.

The festival needs to have the strength of conviction to say no to intimidation, no to censorship and no to Mr Loach!