I am not one for conspiracy theories, however I cannot escape the suspicion that someone at the Nobel Foundation is really "out to get" the new American President. A Nobel prize for peace was the last thing the new President needed (or deserved) at this time.
Now for the record, I like the man. I think he is extremely capable and one of the best things to happen to US politics...no, to world politics in a long long time. He is a leader who wants to effect real change. He speaks well, there is no one better. He inspires like no other and he has indeed introduced the notion, that perhaps there could be hope for the world after all.
So, does he really deserve a Nobel Prize for peace?? Sorry but I think not. As far as I am aware the Noble prize is given for achievement not for promise or potential. Perhaps what he should have received is "most promising newcomer", that he is for sure. However unless that promise leads to results then hey, potential unrealised is well... nothing.
Not only is this a bizarre and questionable decision, in my opinion it is also an extremely dangerous one with wide ranging consequences for the conflict regions in the world.
If we look at Barak Obama's policies in regard to the various conflicts currently in need of a solution, then one surely cannot come to the conclusion that he has had success with any of them.
I will mention but a few high profile conflicts and apologise to the millions of suffering innocents for omitting so many other conflicts which also cry out for action.
In Afghanistan the US and coalition forces are on the back foot. Obama is being asked to send another 50,000 to 60,000 troops. This one will not end soon, not well anyway. In Iraq, things look better, but can we say this will continue or that for that matter any improvement is due to Obama or his administration. North Korea continues to do as it pleases, with little or any fear of "consequences". Perversely, detaining journalists without reason seems to bring its own rewards from the US administration. Iran is running rings around the US administration, and the international community; successfully buying time for its nuclear programme in the process.
Which brings me to the Israeli Palestinian conflict, the worlds "favourite" conflict, and which, lets be honest is the one which concerns me most. I am also under the impression (perhaps mistakenly) that it is his approach to this "hot potato" which won him the admiration of the Nobel Foundation. To me it is ironic, as I strongly believe that his naive and flawed approach is making it much harder (as if such a thing were possible) for any kind of agreement to be reached.
When he started out, lets just say that there was a great deal of good will towards the man and his administration. People wanted to believe that this guy, although not the messiah, was pretty much as close as we could hope for in this day and age. Well as Monty Python said "he's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy".
He's not naughty really, he just doesn't understand how he is supposed to behave. He tries hard, however in his desire to be a "good boy" and to change the face of world politics which are at the moment, lets face it, pretty damn ugly; he is unwittingly causing a huge amount of damage which will take years to fix, particularly in the Middle East. Well Mr President, it is time to grow up, and fast.
He came on strong to Israel insisting that all settlement activity cease. While pissing off the Israelis ( he did however stand up in Cairo and confirm America's unbreakable bond with Israel) , it really pleased the Palestinians and the Arab world. At last they thought, we have an ally in the White House. He made pleasant overtures to the Arab and Muslim worlds. He offered a hand out to Iran and Syria. So, a good start by all accounts. reasons for optimism perhaps.
Well what has happened since? Nothing... well in fact nothing would be an improvement. Things are getting worse not better. The Arab world, which Obama had hoped would make small concessions towards Israel has snubbed the President and toughened their stance in regard to Israel and any form of "normalisation". Obama has now backtracked in regard to settlements and is negotiating a compromise with the Israelis. The Israelis are now slightly happier, however poor Abu Mazen. The President of the Palestinian Authority has been led up the garden path by Obama and has been left far weaker than he was before Obama's arrival on the scene, which lets face it was not that strong to begin with.
With what he understood to be the full support of the US administration, Abbas mistakenly insisted he would not meet with the Israelis until a total freeze in settlement activity, including East Jerusalem. He was then forced, by the Obama administration; to back down and meet with Netanyahu, seriously undermining what little authority he has left in the eyes of the Palestinian people. Obama succeeded in providing a political victory to Hamas, who looked on and then said to the Palestinian people "we told you so".
So Obama's record so far in the Israeli Palestinian conflict is pretty poor. He has undermined Mahmoud Abbas, leaving him weak with elections on the horizon. His showing of support for the Palestinians has led them to harden their position and up their demands. With the "support" of the White House, they see far less reason to compromise. The Arab world has also decided that they can take advantage of the new administration's policies and demand more of Israel. Israel has gone into bunker mode feeling threatened by Obama's approach and its consequences.
President Obama started out with the best of intentions. I truly believe that. However we all know where a road paved with good intentions can lead. If the Nobel laureate wants to seriously tackle the Israeli Palestinian conflict then he will have to rethink his strategy and act swiftly to repair the initial damage he has caused. Only by taking a firm and even handed approach with all sides can he hope to achieve any progress.
The solution cannot be based purely upon "Land for Peace". Along with land there must also be "Peace for Peace". This demands a wholesale change in attitude on the side of the Palestinians and the Arab world. Israelis want to know that if they give up land they will receive peace and not rockets in return. The Palestinians must be made to understand that it is not just the Israelis who will have to make difficult sacrifices in the pursuit of peace. The Israelis need to know that the status quo is no longer an option and that Israeli settlement in the West Bank need to come to an end. The Arab world must realise that they can no longer use the Palestinians as an excuse for inaction and Israel as the scapegoat for all their ills. The international community also needs to realise that its unhealthy obsession with this conflict only serves to exacerbate the situation.
This is a seemingly impossible task, however of all those who have come before, it seems to me that just maybe, President Obama has a better chance than most. He needs to remember however, he is dealing with a tough neighbourhood where compromise is seen as weakness and where waxing lyrical and good intentions are no substitute for smart, determined and well executed policies.
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